I first heard about Otpor (”Resistance”) and Center for Applied NonViolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) in a superb Reason article from 2006 called “The 50 Habits of Highly Effective Revolutionaries“.
Last week I read that Stratfor (the civilian CIA) thinks that Hugo Chavez’s recent political reverse may be due to the CANVAS activity in Venezuela.
From Stratfor.com (registration required)
The Venezuelan government lost its constitutional amendment referendum in a national vote Dec. 2, emboldening the opposition and dealing President Hugo Chavez his first electoral defeat since he took office a decade ago. This is hardly the end of the line for Chavez, but something new is taking shape in the country: a competent and capable opposition.
…The opposition campaign against the constitutional changes that would have enshrined Chavez in power for a generation was organized, unified and even a little slick…A reason for this newfound effectiveness is the entrance into the Venezuelan equation of a new group from the most unlikely of places: Serbia.
Roughly three months ago, a group calling itself the Center for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) began operating in Venezuela. CANVAS’ raison d’etre is simple: to teach local forces how to most effectively oppose the authoritarian regimes who rule them. Courtesy of CANVAS, the dustbin of history boasts a few pieces of geopolitical roadkill: former Georgian President Edward Shevardnadze (Rose Revolution, 2003), former Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev (Tulip Revolution, 2005), nearly President Viktor Yanukovich (Orange Revolution, 2004-05) and CANVAS’ first-ever foe, former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic (2000).
CANVAS, originally known in Serbia as Otpor (loosely translated as “Resistance”), excels at bridging the gaps between disparate factions, mobilizing popular support, coordinating protest actions and hitting authoritarian governments where it most hurts. It shines at carrying out the sort of activities at which the Venezuelan opposition fails miserably, and it has now contributed to Chavez’s first real defeat.
The article above is a follow up to a previous article in Stratfor predicting that another “color revolution” may be forming, this time in Venezuela.
I love the idea of a band of well organised veteran Serbian freedom fighters waging peaceful regime change across the unfree world. It is probably the best thing to come out of the Milosevic era.
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