Everyone thinks this is great news. They are dead wrong. It may well lead to chaos and instability.

A Fistful of Euros explains…

What more can I say? The Eastern crisis is extending rapidly, more rapidly than we are deploying means to contain it. I don’t have time to go into this much more at this point, but I thought it might be worth reproducing a dialogue that went on over a mail thread this morning, between two people with a strong interest in what is happening in Serbia.

Mr A: I still don’t understand if this is a good news for Serbia…

Mr Z: No it is a terrible news, Basically as so far Serbia is unique in the way that now cannot apply either fiscal or monetary measures to kick off the recovery

Mr A: That’s my fear as well. And it is true, there is absolutely no space for fiscal or monetary measures. Moreover, I just got now an info that European Union accession funds for Serbia will not be distributed this year to NGOs/civil society projects/IDPs and refugees associations, but given directly to the government budget. Another sign that the situation here is really getting bleaker than I thought.

BTW, as Edward knows, I am not an economist and I am more interested in the social and political consequences of this crisis. In relation to Serbia, I am quite frightened. If the economic situation rapidly worsens, I will not be so surprised to see a serious political turmoil in Serbia… Hope I am wrong.

Mr A:Yeah, but you know people response is: “Crises, what crises? We have been in a crisis for last twenty years?”.

Politically I hope that there are some changes since the ruling coalition is very much a bizarre motley crew. The leading party in the coalition is the hostage of smaller parties crazy ideas. Unfortunately the same would apply for the leading opposition party – they too have too depend of forming coalitions with smaller “crazy” political parties.

Mr Z:Yep, I hear this story on a daily basis…

My question is anyway: what kind of consequences will possibly have the IMF loan on the Serbian economy?
- devaluation of the dinar?
- higher inflation?

Bizarre is the right adjective to describe the Serbian govt coalition. The problem is that unfortunately I don’t see any possible alternative. But that’s another topic

Mr A: Well, they will have to tackle competitiveness of the economy.

Basically an erosion of wages and depreciation of the currency.

It will not be pretty and particularly it will be hard in cities.

In conclusion, let’s just remember my little causal chain (with feedback loops, of course).

Financial Crisis -> Real Economy Crisis -> Political Crisis

From  Serbia Receives 3 Billion Euro IMF Loan | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion

These are my links for December 16th 2008 through March 26th 2009:

• Yugo-Nostalgie – Mainstream Weekly – For a Comprehensive Approach to the Problems of the West Bankans
• U.S. diplomats back Karadzic’s claim of immunity deal – International Herald Tribune –
• Maldives president orders probe into alleged $2M bribe to recognise Kosovo – Foreign – The Sofia Echo – The president of Maldives, Muhamed Nashid, has ordered police to investigate allegations that government officials accepted a $2 million bribe to recognise Kosovo as independent, media in the Maldives and Serbia reported.
• B92 – News – Politics – Anti-discrimination law changes next week – "A draft law anti-discrimination law, which the Serbian government pulled from parliamentary procedure, will be returned next week with amendments." The Serbian Orthodox Church requested it be pulled because they disapprove of giving gays rights. Disgusting.
• Rhetoric: Western Balkan recipe / ISN – In the Western Balkans, nationalist rhetoric has a bright future among opportunistic politicians and voters who ignore real issues thanks to fear-mongering, Anes Alic writes for ISN Security Watch.

[From JUMPING PICTURES: Nice memories of Tomasz in Belgrade!]

This piece irritated me. The headline writer was kinder than the travel writer, who seems was taken on the Belgrade Tourist Board’s standard loop (Skadarlija –> Question mark restaurant –> Tesla museum –> Kalemegdan) and was an complimentary as possible consider what he was subjected to.

Skadarlija is completely inauthentic. It is a Disney version of “traditional” Serbia. It is a total fraud and visitors know it. The best thing about Skadarlija are the non-traditional restaurants Guli and Campo Dei Fiori, along with Hotel Le Petit Piaf. The little shop next to Campo Dei Fiori staffed by Bojan and his mom is another treasure. The rest should be torn down and sent to Las Vegas where it can be rebuilt next to the fake Venice as the fake Serbian ethno-village.

Belgrade’s restaurants are world class, but instead of taking our visitors to see genuine Belgrade, we take them to places we only go when we are with tourists- places like Question mark. If they want to try Serbian food, go to Zaplet for stunning modern Serbian food. If they want an authentic rough edge kafana, then go to a genuine neighbourhood kafana not the guide book nominated tourist traps. Lets face it, folk warbling and being harassed by the serenading band is enjoyed only by the very drunk or the very nationalistic.

Belgrade’s live music and club scenes are also brilliant. We can (and I do) take visitors to see superb local bands and to Belgrade’s ultra-cool clubs like Tube, where the quality of music is outstanding and the crowd is friendly, beautiful and wildly at play. Tourists however are herded into Turbofolk clubs, or places like Black Panther, where they see what I consider to be the worst side of Belgrade night-life.

Belgrade is vastly more than the clichés it repeats about itself. “Belgrade, city of pretty girls and great clubs” , whilst true, does not do justice to this place. That will attract the stag party crowd, and Belgrade will run the risk of being Pragued – overrun with drunken Western Europeans on stag party’s. I am starting to regret my own propagating of that meme over the years.

Belgrade needs to work on its real treasures – the rivers – and raising the profile of the real wonder of this city, its wonderful people and the beautiful cultural and social landscape the city.

The article does make on good point about smoking. Smokers see it as a paradise, an island of pro-smoking in a nasty clean air world. For those of us who do not partake, it is, along with pollution, the curse of the city. I for one cannot wait for EU non-smoking rules to come into effect when Serbia joins the union. It will be the best transformation in the city in years.

You can read the article here: Belgrade has risen from the ashes to become the Balkans’ party city – Europe, Travel – The Independent